We think about the world using models we construct in our heads. Models are neither true nor false, just more or less consistent with our observations of the world. In addition to consistency, models may be more or less complex (Occam’s Razor), have structural criteria (dichotomy, or Levi-Strauss’ groups of three), and be subject to other aesthetic criteria (beauty or crispness).
Models abstract the world, leaving out details considered irrelevant. Probabilistic thinking will be presented as a sequence of models, each model less abstract (more detailed) and more consistent than its predecessor. Successor models remove inconsistencies (paradoxes) from predecessor models. Pay attention to the sequence, and how the sequence grows, so you can develop your own models as needed.